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Logic is hard

11/22/06

Permalink 01:59:21 pm, by Jeremy Email , 209 words, 3231 views   English (US)
Categories: General

Logic is hard

There was a puzzle given on the Skeptics Guide podcast on 9/13/2006 and the solution they gave the next week bothered me. (They said it was ambiguous depending on how the question was phrased).

I was googling around looking for other references to this problem and found these two:

Marilyn Ignores the Obvious Regarding Probability of Boys by Herb Weiner


Eldon Moritz rebutal to Marilyn vos Savant

After reading Eldon's page, I realized how to rephrase the question to show the right process. Everyone is focusing on the 4 possibilities of children so let's set up the problem that way.

There are 4 women and 4 children walking through the park. The first woman (BB) has a boy with her and a boy at home, the second woman (BG) has a boy with her and a boy at home, the third (GB) has a girl with her and a boy at home, and the fourth (GG) has a girl with her and a girl at home. A man walks up to one of the women at random and sees that there is a boy with her, and asks her how many children she has. She replies that she has 2 children. What is the probably that she has 2 boys?

Clearly, the probability is 1/2 or 50%.

Comments, Pingbacks:

Comment from: ms1234 [Member] Email
Read the question again:

You meet a woman and ask her if she has any children. She replies, "two." You ask if she has any sons and she says, "yes." So now you know she has exactly two children and at least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that her other child is also a boy, and therefore that she has two sons?

Now take your example, and say that the woman is standing outside of her house, waiting for the child she is about to take for a walk, when you approach her. And you ask her "Is one of your two children a boy?" 3 of the women would say yes. 2 of them have girls. 1 has a 2 boys. There is a 1/3 chance this woman has a boy.
PermalinkPermalink 08/27/09 @ 12:21

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